Fertilizer shortage meets El Niño: double pressure on farm costs and food prices

A global tightening in fertilizer supply, paired with the climate uncertainties brought by El Niño, is raising concerns over production costs and prices across multiple agricultural commodities. Crops such as rice, wheat, and coffee are among the most exposed to this dual risk. Farmers are being urged to reassess input purchasing strategies ahead of the next growing season.

Restricted availability of fertilizers in international markets has been pushing up production costs across several agricultural supply chains. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium remain priced above historical averages, squeezing farm margins even before planting begins.

El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty to an already challenging environment. The climate pattern is historically linked to droughts in key Brazilian producing regions and excess rainfall in other parts of South America, both of which can undermine yields and crop quality in sensitive commodities such as rice, wheat, and coffee.

The combination of constrained input supply and potential output losses could tighten food availability in both domestic and international markets, creating conditions for upward price pressure at the consumer level. For farmers, the risk is twofold: higher costs to produce and lower volumes to sell.

In this scenario, strategies such as forward purchasing of fertilizers, securing long-term supply agreements, and diversifying crop portfolios may help reduce exposure. Closely tracking seasonal climate forecasts is also becoming an essential tool for sound farm planning.